My swimming speed jumped back very fast, and within a few weeks I was actually swimming faster than I did all summer. Granted, I never felt like I swam well this summer. Likewise, cycling has been going pretty well, although the off time at the end of summer will definitely hurt me; my concern is the length of the bike (about 29 miles), which will be longer than any race I did this summer. Lastly, the run... I always bank on my run, but that may not go well. I always race myself into running shape (literally) each summer as I don't usually have the extra energy/time to throw in a running workout (since I am more focused on improving cycling and swimming). So the first few races are more of a distant muscle memory on the run. However, I don't have room for error this weekend, and the last time that I ran fast (even close to race pace) was in mid July. Ignorance is bliss, as it allows me to pretend that I can run faster right now than I really can. It was my mindset going into Apple Du, and I still ran well even though I ran a 'conservative' race. That being said, I absolutely need to run well if I want to have a good race. The longer bike will put me even farther behind, and if I don't pass alot of guys on the run, I will not place well.
I can't expect too much given the shortened training period, but based on where my fitness was when I peaked in mid July, I know what I am capable of. My injury after Annandale tri shortened my peak racing season, and if I can get close to that level, things will go very well.